Nigeria earned $31.54 billion from crude oil exports in 2025, according to Balance of Payments data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria — a 14.4 percent decline from the $36.85 billion recorded in 2024, despite a significant increase in production volumes. The data reveals a troubling contradiction at the heart of Nigeria’s oil sector: producing more barrels did not translate into earning more dollars.
Overall crude oil and condensate production reached 599.64 million barrels in 2025, well below the government’s budget target of 766.5 million barrels — a shortfall of 166.86 million barrels. Nigeria missed its OPEC production quota in nine of the twelve months of the year, with compliance achieved only in January, June, and July. Operational disruptions, infrastructure outages, and upstream inefficiencies continue to suppress the country’s ability to optimise revenue from its most valuable resource.
There is, however, a silver lining in the data. Nigeria’s total oil and gas exports — including crude, natural gas, and refined petroleum products — rose to $48.17 billion in 2025 from $45.51 billion in 2024. Gas export earnings grew 21.4 percent to $10.51 billion, while refined petroleum exports reached $6.13 billion, reflecting early gains from the Dangote Refinery’s operations which are beginning to reshape Nigeria’s petroleum export structure.
With crude oil production declining further to 1.31 million barrels per day in February 2026 from 1.46 million in January, the pressure on government revenue remains acute heading into the second quarter — particularly as rising Middle East tensions could disrupt global energy markets.
What to watch: Dangote Refinery’s export ramp-up, NNPCL’s upstream production targets for Q2 2026, and global oil price trajectory amid US-Iran tensions.
